Upgrade bidding: the airlines, the windows, the math

Most long-haul airlines outside the US now sell their empty business seats by auction a few days before departure, with minimums starting around 300 to 550 USD per segment. Done right, economy plus a bid is the cheapest lie-flat seat you will ever buy. Done wrong, you pay 700 USD for a lottery ticket and still fly economy. This chapter gives you the rules, the table and the math.

How the auction works

Plusgrade runs the bidding at more than 80 airlines, including Lufthansa Group, Air Canada, Qantas, Cathay, ANA, Etihad, Qatar, Singapore and Virgin Atlantic. Condor and TAP add SeatBoost, a live in-app auction in the final 24 to 36 hours. The sequence is the same almost everywhere. You book. An invitation arrives 7 to 14 days out (if not, check Manage Booking or the airline’s Plusgrade page, URL pattern /offer/AirlineName). A slider shows a minimum, a maximum and a strength indicator, and you enter a card. You can change or cancel until a cutoff, typically 24 to 72 hours before departure. A decision arrives 24 to 50 hours out, and the card is charged only if you win.

It is not a pure highest-bid auction. Etihad’s terms score the amount, competing offers, the original fare, status and seats available. Qantas processes points upgrades first, then bids, with status ahead of fare type ahead of request time. Air Canada’s bid range moves lower for higher fare classes. A Flex passenger with Gold status bidding 500 USD can beat a Light passenger bidding 600 USD.

You get the seat, meal and bags of the new cabin. Miles, status credit, lounge access and refund rules follow the original ticket (Cathay, Qatar and Lufthansa all say so), and Qatar’s upgraded passengers get no lounge without status.

The table

Minimums are per person, per segment, long-haul economy to business unless noted. “Reported” means passenger reports, not the airline. Windows were correct as of October 2026.

Also bidding, with less confirmed detail: Swiss, Austrian, Brussels, Discover Airlines and AZAL (both new in 2026), SAS, Finnair, LOT, Royal Jordanian, Kuwait, El Al, Kenya Airways, Air Astana, EVA, Philippine Airlines, Jetstar, Virgin Australia, LATAM, Avianca, Copa, Aeromexico, Air India, Starlux and, the one US example, Hawaiian’s Bid Up for first class.

Who does not bid

Emirates (Skybid was discontinued; miles upgrades and cash offers instead). Turkish (no public bidding, reported, not confirmed; fixed-price upgrades in Manage Booking and standby at check-in). Thai (standby cash upgrade requested at check-in, paid only if a seat is released at the gate). Korean Air and Asiana (none known, not confirmed). The Chinese majors. US carriers, except Hawaiian; United is testing PlusPoints bidding for 1K members, which is not cash. Air France and KLM are Plusgrade partners on paper but mostly show fixed-price offers; treat bidding as unavailable.

Strategy: the amount

Compute the gap first. Cheapest business fare today minus what you paid. Bid 20 to 40 percent of it: a 2,500 USD gap puts you at 500 to 1,000 USD. The Upgrade bid tool shows a slightly wider band, 30 to 50 percent, for cabins only a quarter to half empty, and caps you where winning would cost more than business outright.

Beat the minimum by a little. Most passengers bid the minimum, so the low end of “fair” or “good” on the slider clears when seats exist. Minimum bids win mainly where the cabin is wide open (Oman Air, LATAM, Copa and Avianca reports are full of them); Lufthansa is reported to favor mid-to-upper bids on heavy routes.

Cross-check the fixed price in Manage Booking, which is sometimes at or below the bid minimum. Sanity check per hour: under about 60 to 75 USD per block hour for a lie-flat seat is good; above about 120 USD, a competitor’s business fare is the better buy. Pay cash, not points: Air Canada and Qantas value points at about 1 cent in mixed bids.

Strategy: the flight

• Check business inventory before you book and again before you bid. On ExpertFlyer, look for J, C, D, Z or P showing 7 to 9. Without a subscription, try to book nine business seats on the airline’s site. Nine available means minimum bids clear. One or two means bid high or skip.
• Big business cabins. A Qantas A380 has about 3 economy seats per business seat; an A330 about 10. More business seats per economy passenger, more upgrades cleared.
• Low-demand timing and thin corporate routes. Tuesday and Wednesday, shoulder seasons, the second daily frequency, late-night hub departures, leisure routes, the days after a holiday. Lufthansa to secondary US cities, Icelandair, Norse, TAP, Aer Lingus, Oman Air, Ethiopian and Kenya Airways all have thin corporate demand. Avoid Monday morning and Thursday evening business routes, December, and status-heavy pairs like Frankfurt to New York or Singapore to London.
• Place early, raise late. Put in a modest bid early to be in the queue, re-check inventory 2 to 3 days out, and raise if the cabin is still open.
• Bid per segment. Bid on the overnight or longest leg only. A 3-hour daytime connection in economy costs you nothing.

Cheapest economy plus bid, or premium economy plus bid?

Frankfurt to New York one way in mid-October, as one observation: Economy Light 480 USD, Premium Economy 950 USD, Business 2,600 USD.

Premium economy plus bid usually wins when the PE fare is under about twice economy, because PE to J bids and miles upgrades cost 40 to 60 percent less than Y to J, and losing leaves you somewhere acceptable. Cheapest economy plus bid wins on wide-open midweek flights where economy would be fine anyway.

The rule: if the bid you need to feel confident exceeds about 45 percent of the fare gap, or you cannot live with the fallback cabin, stop. Buy premium economy and upgrade, or buy business from a cheaper carrier.

Where it breaks

Bids are non-refundable once accepted and charged 24 to 48 hours out, so a trip you might still cancel is a bad candidate. Two passengers on one PNR is one bid at most airlines (Malaysia and Cathay among them): one seat left and you both lose, where a solo passenger at the gate might have won. Peak dates and status-heavy routes clear only at the top of the range, often above a sale business fare (see Cash fare sales and when they happen). And when the window closes with seats still open, Lufthansa’s app, Thai’s standby desk, Malaysia’s airport counter and Condor’s live auction all sell them later than the bid does.

Run your numbers through the Upgrade bid tool before you place anything, then read Miles upgrades and cash upgrade offers for the second chance at check-in and the gate.

Sources checked

• Plusgrade: Discover Airlines launches upgrade bidding, 2026
• FlyerTalk: mySQupgrade bidding experiences, 2026 data points, accessed 8 October 2026
• Travel-Dealz: the 5 upgrade options at Lufthansa, accessed 8 October 2026
• Air Canada: AC Bid Upgrade FAQ, accessed 8 October 2026
• Cathay Pacific: Upgrade Bid portal, accessed 8 October 2026
• The Points Guy: guide to bidding on flight upgrades, accessed 8 October 2026