Tool 04

Upgrade bid

Most airlines sell upgrades by auction a few days before departure. This tells you what the economy-plus-bid route costs in expectation, the most you should ever bid, and whether booking business outright is simply cheaper.

USD
What you pay for the base ticket, this flight or leg only.
USD
The guaranteed option you are comparing against.
USD
Per passenger, per segment, as the airline's bid page shows it.
%
See the guide below. Midweek, off-season, many empty business seats: 50 to 70. Peak, nearly full: 10 to 20.
USD
Be honest. If you would never pay more than this to lie flat, the tool caps advice at it.

Economy plus a bid against business outright

If the bid wins you pay the top bar. If it loses you fly economy and pay only the economy fare. The middle bar is the average at your odds.

Estimating your chance

Airlines accept bids to fill seats that would otherwise fly empty, highest bids first. Your odds depend on empty business seats, not on how generous you feel. Check the seat map on the airline's site the day you bid:

  • More than half the business cabin empty, 3 to 5 days out: 50 to 70 percent at a bid around 30 to 40 percent of the fare difference.
  • A quarter to a half empty: 30 to 45 percent. Bid around 40 to 50 percent of the difference.
  • Fewer than 5 seats open: under 20 percent. Bid high or do not bother.

Seat maps hide blocked seats and staff travel, so treat them as a guide. Midweek departures, shoulder seasons, and routes with lots of competition clear at lower bids. Friday and Sunday night flights, holidays and routes dominated by corporate travel rarely do.

The rule most people miss

Many airlines let you bid on each segment separately. Bid aggressively on the overnight or longest leg and skip the short daytime one. The lie-flat seat matters when you are trying to sleep; a 3-hour connection in economy costs you nothing.